Why Is Azerbaijan Harming Its Ties With Russia?
Azerbaijan appears to be signaling a strategic realignment toward the West, even at the cost of straining ties with Moscow.
Recent events may confirm a deliberate shift in Azerbaijan’s foreign policy stances against Russia and Iran. From the arrests of Russian journalists to diplomatic quarrels over security operations, Azerbaijan appears to be signaling a strategic realignment toward the West, even at the cost of straining ties with Moscow and Tehran.
Demonization Of Russia
On June 30, Azerbaijan’s security forces arrested seven employees from Sputnik Azerbaijan as part of an operation in their editorial offices, where they were treated as criminals or even terrorists, marking a significant harm against Russian-Azerbayani relations. The employees were arrested on dubious charges, with the videos of the arrests showing they were detained in a manner usually reserved for the apprehension of violent terrorists.
Days earlier on June 27, Russian Federal Security Service (FSB) forces conducted raids in Yekaterinburg, which turned violent resulting in the killing of two Azerbaijani brothers and arresting nine others. The incident provoked Azerbaijan’s strongest knee-jerk diplomatic response since the December 2024 downing of an AZAL aircraft—widely believed to have been orchestrated by Ukraine. It’s unclear if the arrest were some sort of orchestrated revenge for the killings. Both these situations could mean Baku is employing Hybrid War elements against Russia, particularly a disinformation campaign and lawfare. Not much suggests this is about defending Azerbaijani interests, but more about framing Russia as an aggressor, exaggerating isolated incidents while mimicking US and EU propaganda tactics, painting Moscow as an imperialist.
For decades until very recently, Azerbaijan skillfully navigated between Russia and the West, leveraging its energy resources and strategic location to maintain autonomy. Azerbaijan's geostrategic location is crucial for Eurasian integration via the North-South Transport Corridor (NSTC), linking Russia to India through Iran. Observers should remember that Azerbaijan signed the Declaration on Allied Interaction two days before the special operation in late February 2022 and has since resisted Western pressure to distance itself from Russia. Nonetheless, this all might be at a standstill if Baku is reviving Cold War-style anti-Russian narratives, fueling tensions with Russia (and possibly within Russia), positioning itself as a willing Western client state in the Caucasus.
Azerbaijan’s Role in Regional Tensions With Iran
Azerbaijani-Iranian stability is vital for NSTC's success, yet Iran opposes Azerbaijan's ties with Israel and the Zangezur Corridor, while India disapproves of Azerbaijan's support for Pakistan in Kashmir. Transcending mutual mistrust would be very profitable, but the Iran-Israel war, coupled with the Trump administration's Maximum pressure strategy, may have altered geopolitical Azerbaijan's calculus.
Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian asked Azerbaijan to investigate reports of Israeli drones flying through its airspace during recent Israeli attacks on Iran. In a call with Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev on June 27, Pezeshkian sought clarification on the alleged violation. Aliyev denied the accusations, stating Azerbaijan's airspace is under its complete control and such use would never be allowed.
Azerbaijan’s military victory in Nagorno-Karabakh (2023) and its subsequent consolidation of power near Iran’s borders have heightened Iranian anxieties. Azerbaijan’s emphasis on securing its energy infrastructure has been a critical factor in shaping its geopolitical posture. The 2020 Tovuz clashes occurred just months before the Southern Gas Corridor (SGC) became operational making them wary of it becoming vulnerable. The subsequent Second Karabakh War victory allowed Azerbaijan to consolidate control over key transit routes, reducing dependence on external powers for pipeline security. With Tehran backing Armenia, Azerbaijan sees Turkey, the US and Israel as a direct counterbalance. Making Tehran fear that Baku could become a staging ground for Western or Israeli operations, further destabilizing the region.
Taken together, these actions by could mean Azerbaijan will deliberately reduce its dependence on Russia and Iran while deepening ties with the US and Israel. Moreover, Azerbaijan’s strategic positioning — bordering both Iran and Russia — would make it an invaluable asset for Western containment strategies. Azerbaijan’s role as a gas supplier to Europe gives it leverage, and aligning with NATO interests could secure further investment. Europe is already reliant on Azerbaijani gas, and Baku may seek to alienate Russia as part of its strategy to further orient itself towards the West for these investments. As a gas supplier, Azerbaijan has seen its role strengthened as an alternative to Russian energy since the sanctions, thus increasing its geopolitical weight.
(Neo) Cold War Tactics
The deaths related to the FSB raids in Yekaterinburg provided Baku with an opportunity to escalate its anti-Russian rhetoric in the international media, for instance, in the repatriation of the bodies, the coffins of those deceased were made a spectacle in a very particular way showing a level of respect and ritual usually reserved for statesmen possibly seeking to augment the feeling of loss in the viewer, which might be coordinated. Maybe a deliberate effort to stoke ethnic tensions within Russia, particularly among its Azerbaijani minority.
Azerbaijan’s tensions with Iran have also reached a boiling point with Tehran seeking answers from Baku on whether it allowed Israel to use its airspace for strikes inside Iran, a claim that, if true, would make Azerbaijan a direct participant in covert Western-Israeli operations. Given Azerbaijan’s deep military and intelligence ties with Israel, including drone sales and joint security projects, these allegations should be investigated fully. At this juncture it remains uncertain whether Azerbaijan will intensify its anti-Russia stance and disrupt its energy pipeline partnerships, or if it will find a new equilibrium between the two blocks, benefiting from the energy projects of both.