Deciphering The Aftermath Of Trump’s Strikes On Iran
Iranian Foreign Minister Seyed Abbas Araghchi condemned the US strikes stating, “Iran reserves all options to defend its sovereignty, interests, and people”
The recent US military strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities have been declared a "spectacular military success" by President Trump while Iranian officials downplay the damage vowing to defend their state. Israel launched Operation Rising Lion on June 13 as a preemptive strike against Iran's nuclear program, but still more than a week later Israel only had managed to enter into a week’s long, blow-for-blow military engagement with Iran.
The US operation, which targeted Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan with bunker-busting GBU-57 MOPs and Tomahawk cruise missiles, was meant to cripple Tehran’s nuclear ambitions. According to President Trump Iran’s nuclear facilities were "completely and totally obliterated," and Tehran must now "make peace" or face even greater consequences. However, Iranian state media quickly countered, reporting that the targeted sites had been evacuated beforehand, with enriched uranium stockpiles relocated. But the real question remains, did this work?
Tehran accused Washington of violating international law and the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty after US-Israeli airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities and military sites. Iranian Foreign Minister Seyed Abbas Araghchi condemned the US strikes stating that “Iran reserves all options to defend its sovereignty, interests, and people” vowing to defend Iran's sovereignty and threatening to target hostile assets and weapons shipments to Israel. Yemen's Houthis also warned that US involvement would lead to attacks on its warships in the Red Sea.
Then shortly after yesterday's dramatic strikes, an Iranian state television reporter embedded near the Fordow nuclear facility claims the much-hyped US attack amounted to a nothingburger. The Fordow facility is buried deep underground, and while the GBU-57 MOP is designed for such targets, its effectiveness remains uncertain. As had Iran moved its uranium in advance, the attack may have been more about sending a message than achieving lasting damage.
Israel for its part has not delayed in escalating hostilities more, as Israeli fighter jets struck multiple sites in western Iran, including missile launch sites believed to house medium-range ballistic missiles capable of reaching Israeli territory. The strikes occurred less than 24 hours after US operations against Iran's nuclear program points to a coordinated action between Washington and its closest Middle Eastern ally. The UN Security Council has called an emergency meeting as world leaders urge de-escalation while Oil prices surged nearly 5% in early trading amid concerns about potential disruptions to Persian Gulf energy supplies.
If Iran’s nuclear program remains intact underground, Trump’s victory declaration could be theatrics moreover the Islamic Republic has a history of rebuilding covert facilities, and they already had relocated personnel from those areas. While Trump’s strike may have temporarily degraded Iran’s nuclear infrastructure, the real test will be whether Tehran folds or doubles down. If past behavior is any indication, Iran will not capitulate easily, meaning the US could soon face an even costlier conflict. Will this strike delay Iran’s nuclear ambitions, or just push them further underground? Does the US have a long-term strategy, or is this another short-term show of force?
With both US and Israeli forces now having conducted direct attacks on Iranian soil, the key question remains whether Iran will absorb these blows or respond in ways that could trigger broader war. The latest US and Israeli strikes against Iranian targets appear designed to provoke a response that could justify broader military action, according to regional security analysts. By targeting both nuclear facilities and conventional military assets, the US may be attempting to goad Tehran into attacking American forces in the Middle East, a red line that would likely trigger massive US retaliation and potentially open the door for ground operations.
Iran has shown restraint in direct attacks on US forces with the last one dating back to 8 January 2020 when they executed Operation Martyr Soleimani, successfully striking Al-Asad Airbase in Iraq with 11 Qiam-1 ballistic missiles, which resulted in 110 US military personnel suffering traumatic brain injuries, in retaliation for the US assassination of Qasem Soleimani.
The West wants Iran to absorb these strikes without major retaliation but it's a more likely scenario that Iran will continue attacking Israel while direct attacks on US bases / ships remain a possibility. US may try to use any Iranian attack killing US personnel to create a political pretext for mass deployment and the time may come when Iran may believe targeting enemies beyond Israel might be necessary to maintain determent.
History shows that air strikes alone don’t cause regime change, especially in a country as resilient as Iran so if the US wants to ensure Iran’s nuclear program is dismantled, a full-scale invasion is needed. Although, Trump’s warned that future attacks will be "far greater" he could mean the US is prepared for further airstrikes but boots on the ground for now remain distant.