Can Trump Save Israel From A War Of Attrition Without Boots On The Ground Inside Iran?
A full-scale US invasion of Iran with boots on the ground is highly unlikely, it would be risky, politically unpopular and costly as it would deplete the US — and its proxies — stockpiles.
On June 24, President Donald Trump announced an end to hostilities, framing the pause in fighting as a victory for his administration’s hardline strategy including controversial US airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities.
As tensions between Israel and Iran continue to escalate even after the US strikes on nuclear facilities, the question of further U.S. involvement looms large. After the June 13 decapitation attempt by US and Israel of part of the Iranian leadership and scientific community the situation escalated into both countries targeting each other with airstrikes and drones, with Israel also using terror cells and aircraft to target Iran. Resulting in Israel getting heavily pummeled by Iran as the Iron Dome 1) is not invincible and 2) has economic limitations to consider amid a looming protracted war against Iran risks destroying the Jewish state.
So, on June 22 a US bombing campaign targeted Iran’s nuclear infrastructure, severely damaging the superficial buildings pertaining to said enrichment capabilities at least temporarily. It’s unclear if the damage reached the enrichment facilities themselves located deep underground although Iranian media reported they had moved the enriched uranium beforehand. Then on June 24 US President Donald Trump announced on Monday that a "12-day war" between Israel and Iran was ending in a ceasefire, framing the deal as a vindication of his decision to order U.S. airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities.
In a TruthSocial post Trump declared the stipulations of the suggested ceasefire: “CONGRATULATIONS TO EVERYONE! It has been fully agreed by and between Israel and Iran that there will be a Complete and Total CEASEFIRE (in approximately 6 hours from now, when Israel and Iran have wound down and completed their in progress, final missions!), for 12 hours, at which point the War will be considered, ENDED! Officially, Iran will start the CEASEFIRE and, upon the 12th Hour, Israel will start the CEASEFIRE and, upon the 24th Hour, an Official END to THE 12 DAY WAR will be saluted by the World. During each CEASEFIRE, the other side will remain PEACEFUL and RESPECTFUL. On the assumption that everything works as it should, which it will, I would like to congratulate both Countries, Israel and Iran, on having the Stamina, Courage, and Intelligence to end, what should be called, “THE 12 DAY WAR.” This is a War that could have gone on for years, and destroyed the entire Middle East, but it didn’t, and never will! God bless Israel, God bless Iran, God bless the Middle East, God bless the United States of America, and GOD BLESS THE WORLD!”
Iran had initially disputed Trump's claim with Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi responding no agreement had been made,
“As Iran has repeatedly made clear: Israel launched war on Iran, not the other way around. As of now, there is NO "agreement" on any ceasefire or cessation of military operations. However, provided that the Israeli regime stops its illegal aggression against the Iranian people no later than 4 am Tehran time, we have no intention to continue our response afterwards. The final decision on the cessation of our military operations will be made later.”
A few hours later in a statement published by state media where the Secretariat of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council said Iran would accept the offer made by Trump but that they would respond to any further act of aggression. Iran’s calculus hinges on the fear that accepting Trump’s unilateral ceasefire, without formal negotiations or security guarantees, would set a dangerous precedent, leaving Tehran vulnerable and enabling future US-Israeli strikes at will. From Iran’s perspective, this “hollow peace” is not a resolution but a trap, legitimizing Washington and Tel-Aviv’s ability to bomb Iranian nuclear sites with impunity while offering no assurances against further attacks.
Will The Top-Down Ceasefire Hold?
Trump’s unilateral ceasefire declaration which was delivered without direct negotiations was accepted by both parties for now. Without binding terms to restrain Israel’s military actions or address Iran’s own security concerns agreeing to a deal brokered solely by their adversaries would undermine Iran’s regional standing, and signal weakness to proxy networks. Nonetheless they might not have any choice for the moment, while they don’t trust the US, by agreeing to Trumps terms, Tehran recognized the choice isn’t between war and peace, but between surrender and survival.
For Iran, accepting a truce brokered entirely by its adversaries sets a perilous precedent and a challenge in itself, as it rewards US-Israeli military escalation without addressing Tehran’s core security concerns. Without verified restraints on Israel’s freedom to strike (like limits on covert operations or Mossad assassinations), Iran may see this deal as a temporary pause, not an enduring peace which makes sense as Trump's interest is that there are no more major conflicts while his term lasts. The regime is wary of this managed conflict model, where Washington dictates terms after the bombing, will repeat indefinitely, leaving Iran’s nuclear program and regional influence perpetually vulnerable.
There are flaws in the design of the “deal” for instance the ceasefire hinges on Iran’s compliance but lacks enforceable checks on Israel. Without a negotiated framework, violations could spiral unchecked and US Israel will probably go on ahead with its assassinations, sabotage, military attacks and terrorist campaign. Only 6 hours into the non-official Ceasefire and Israeli Defense Minister Katz accused Iran of ceasefire violations, ordering the IDF to strike in Tehran after Iran, allegedly, fired two missiles towards northern Israel, even if Iran didn’t attack, by Israel doing so under false pretenses would dissolve Trump’s efforts to save Israel from a war of attrition.
Not Enough Good Will For Lasting Peace?
Trump took a hardline stance against Iran withdrew from the Iran Nuclear Deal (JCPOA) in 2018, reimposing crippling sanctions and ordering the strike that killed Qasem Soleimani, Iran’s top general, in 2020 aside from moving the US Embassy to Jerusalem, solidifying support for Israel so simply put Iran has no Trust in him.
A full-scale US invasion of Iran with boots on the ground is highly unlikely, it would be risky, politically unpopular and costly as it would deplete the US — and its proxies — stockpiles which it is currently saving up to continue its contention attempt against China. Instead, the US and Israel would likely rely on alternative strategies to weaken Tehran while keeping Israel out of an attrition war with Iran.