US Secretary Of State Articulated The Geoeconomic Tensions Within Multipolarity
The article discusses Secretary of State Marco Rubio's concerns about the geoeconomic consequences for the United States of further alienating Russia and pushing it into China's orbit.
Secretary of State Marco Rubio has emphasized recently that the United States should not allow Russia to become China's "junior partner" possibly preparing the ground for a future normalization of relations with Russia. The article discusses Secretary of State Marco Rubio's concerns about the geopolitical consequences for the United States of further alienating Russia and pushing it into China's orbit.
In a recent interview with Breitbart News, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio articulated the geoeconomic tensions with in multipolarity surrounding the relationship between Russia and China, and the implications for the global stability if the US does not normalize relations with Russia.
State Sec. Rubio: “Well, I don't know if we'll ever be successful at peeling them completely off a relationship with the Chinese, I don't think having China and Russia at each other's neck is also good for global stability because they're both nuclear powers, but I do think we’re in a situation now where the Russians have become increasingly dependent on the Chinese and that’s not a good outcome either, if you think about it, the big story of the 21century is gonna be US-China relations and if Russia becomes a permanent Junior partner to China, in the long term, well now you're talking about two nuclear Powers aligned against the United States and even you know 10 years from now, 5 years from now if this trend continues we could find ourselves in a situation with where whether Russia wants to improve its relations with the US or not, they can't because they become completely dependent on the Chinese because we've cut them off.
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Look we're going to have competition and even potential you know direct confrontation […] with the Chinese […] and we're going to have disagreements with the Russians but we have to have a relationship with both. These are big powerful countries with nuclear stockpiles large militaries they can project power globally and I think we have lost the concept of maturity and sanity in diplomatic relations. Part of diplomatic relations is the ability to communicate with and manage through problems with other great Powers around the world to avoid war and to avoid conflict but I think having a situation where the Russians are permanently a junior partner to China, having to do whatever China says they need to do because of their dependence on them, I don't think that's a good outcome for Russia and it's not a good outcome for America or for Europe or for the world ”
Rubio's concerns center around the potential for a bi-multipolar world, where power is concentrated between two major poles—the United States and China—with Russia aligning more closely with China. This alignment, according to Rubio, could pose a significant challenge to US interests and global stability. He warned that if Russia becomes a "permanent junior partner" to China, it could lead to a more unified and potentially hostile bloc, pitting two nuclear powers against the United States.
Rubio acknowledged that completely severing Russia's ties with China might not be possible, but he emphasized the importance of maintaining a balance of power. He noted that closer ties between China and Russia could create problems for the United States if Moscow becomes overly dependent on Beijing. Rubio argued, that this dependency, could limit Russia's ability to engage in independent diplomacy and potentially lead to a more unified front against the United States.
Without a third superpower in global geoeconomic affairs, Russia does risk becoming China's junior partner. While both countries have strengthened their economic and political ties in recent years, there are clear signs of an imbalance in their relationship. China's rapid economic growth and expanding global influence have placed it in a position of relative dominance, as the United States keeps scaring the states of the world away with its sanctions, Rules-based order, military conflict and Hybrid Wars. Hence why Secretary Rubio argues that it is in the US interest to perhaps pivot to Russia to prevent it from becoming overly dependent on China, as not doing so will lead to stronger China.
Multipolarity(es): Bi-multipolarity vs. Tri-multipolarity
Multipolarity refers to a world order where power is distributed among multiple states or regions, rather than being concentrated in the hands of a single dominant power. This concept can be understood in different ways, depending on the geopolitical perspective one adopts. For some, multipolarity represents a more balanced and equitable distribution of power, where smaller nations can assert their sovereignty and influence. For others, it signifies a return to a more competitive and potentially unstable global environment, reminiscent of the pre-World War I era.
Economist Sanjaya Baru, a former newspaper editor, a best-selling author, and former adviser to Prime Minister Manmohan Singh proposed the concept of what he calls bi-multipolarity in his article titled ‘The Geo-economics of Multipolarity’ published in the book ‘Asia between Multipolarism and Multipolarity’. Bi-multipolarity, as he defines it, is an evolution of the late Samuel P. Huntington’s concept of uni-multipolarity. A bi-multipolar world dominated by the United States and China could lead to increased competition and potential conflict, as both powers vie for influence and resources. Conversely, a tri-multipolar world with a more independent Russia could offer a more balanced and stable global order, where no single power dominates. Political Analysis, Andrew Korybko has written extensively on the Ruso-Indian relations relating to this tri-multipolar potential.
The Russia-India partnership has the potential to significantly shape the geopolitics of the Eurasian region and global geoeconomics as so far both states collaborate to work towards tri-multipolarity. This partnership is rooted in a long history of cooperation and mutual respect, dating back to the Cold War era and formalized through the Declaration on the India-Russia Strategic Partnership in 2000. Both countries have set ambitious targets to boost bilateral trade to over $100 billion by 2030, with significant cooperation in energy, engineering, agriculture, and high technology. This economic partnership not only strengthens their bilateral ties but also provides Russia with an alternative to over-reliance on China, thereby balancing its trade and geoeconomic interests. So, by strengthening ties with India, Russia can diversify its economic and political engagements, contributing to a more balanced and multipolar world order.
As one of the most prominent US political figures has articulated these tensions, Secretary Rubio appears to understand it is in the United States' best interest to prevent the crystallization of a Sino-Russian bloc, nonetheless is it not at all clear if the US is capable of pivoting to Russia and return to diplomacy after their ‘Rules-Based Order’ atrophiation.