Trump Recalibrates US Networked Empire Into A Tariff-Based Order
The article discusses the Trump castling strategy as a recalibration of US foreign policy, thus ensuring the survival of a remnant US empire network in a post-unipolar world.
Trump Seeks A Free Lunch From The Global Community by exhibiting a more confrontational stance towards traditional allies – like the UK and EU – and enemies alike. This is mainly so because China has become the number one business partner for many countries around the world as the US has gradually lost that position. But instead of building up geo economically to engage the world in the marketplace, the Trump administration uses economic sanctions and trade war to build a Sphere of influence (SOI) from which to extract wealth. The article discusses the Trump castling strategy as a recalibration of US foreign policy, thus ensuring the survival of a remnant US empire network in a post-unipolar world.
The Trump administration's 90-day defunding of US AID, which serves to help its proxies destabilized take control of foreign states and Secretary of State Marco Rubio acknowledging the shift to a multipolar world should not be interpreted as a sign that the US is ready to engage with the world without its hybrid war apparatus. The US still believes that by establishing a rigid sphere of influence (SOI), it can micromanage and govern these regions. More importantly, it seeks to use its political and legal influence to negate the free exchange between the Eurasian and Asian civilizational states and the US-led West's SOI. This is seen as a way to ensure the survival of its remnant empire network in a post-unipolar world.
Trump's Tariff-Based Order?
President Trump wants to use the tariff stick and a recalibrated Hybrid War apparatus to make enough countries buy more US products to shorten the trade imbalance, and a general push for a more transactional neo-colonial relationship, where the US seeks to maintain its dominance through economic and political pressure in hopes of counterbalancing China's and Russia’s growing clientele and ensuring the US a sizable amount of small and medium-sized states that commercially capitulate.
On January 31, 2025, President Trump repeated his tariff threat to dissuade BRICS nations from making a currency to replace the US dollar or by de-dollarization. Trump reiterated his stance on imposing 100% tariffs on goods from BRICS countries unless they agree not to challenge the U.S. dollar as the world's reserve currency.
The decline of the US industrial base has been a critical concern with significant losses in manufacturing jobs weakening economic resilience innovation. This decline has increased dependence on imports, leaving the United States vulnerable to global supply chain disruptions. Moreover, the decreasing use of the US dollar in global trade poses a threat to American economic dominance. All the while BRICS core and BRICS partner countries are constantly seeking alternative payment methodologies beyond the use of the weaponized dollar, limiting the US's ability to impose economic sanctions and exert global influence. Prolonged quantitative easing has further distorted price signals in US markets, creating asset bubbles and leading to misguided investments that destabilize the economy.
Trump's Castling Strategy —shifting priorities and alliances to achieve strategic advantages — illustrates a US plan to reposition the US in global affairs. If the strategy does not gain sufficient traction, it could lead to heightened tensions and violence in volatile regions. Rapid changes in diplomatic relationships can destabilize established partnerships and lead to unpredictable outcomes. If not executed effectively, the Castling Strategy may elevate the quanta of violence, as the administration could resort to military responses in the face of failure, further exacerbating conflicts instead of resolving them.
President Trump's Castling Strategy Is A Recalibration
President Trump is pressuring states to 1) leave their neutral stance to help the US defeat its enemies, 2) relinquish territory so the US becomes the main beneficent of its vassal's resources, or 3) ask for economic servitude by forcing states to go against their interests to benefit the US. In this sense, Trump will seek to leverage economic pressure to achieve many foreign policy goals, just as Biden did.
Trump's foreign policy priorities appear to be focused on several ambitious and controversial neocolonialist goals, but will they work with everybody? For instance, Trump's request for Saudi Arabia to lower oil prices to impact Russia's finances is unlikely to succeed. This is due to Saudi Arabia's need for high oil prices to maintain economic stability and the lack of incentives offered by the US, while Russia and the BRICS countries have a geoeconomic understanding that provides them with more options. Saudi Arabia's economic stability is indeed tied to high oil prices as the Arab country has significant investments and economic needs that rely on maintaining a certain price level for oil to ensure fiscal stability. Countries like Saudi Arabia may lack sufficient incentives to comply with US requests, especially if those requests conflict with their own economic interests. The US would need to offer tangible benefits or assurances to gain cooperation, if this fails he will try threats of stricter neocolonial rule and threats of sanctions and trade war.
When it comes to India the Trump administration, along with the EU, have indeed exerted pressure to crack down on what they refer to as the Russian "shadow fleet" just as Biden did. The pressure from the West is part of a broader strategy but it is not likely that India will abandon its strategic interests, and geopolitical considerations play a significant role. India has a long-standing policy of non-alignment and maintaining a neutral stance in international disputes, which allows it to navigate global dynamics without being overly beholden to any one power bloc, a neutrality which is particularly useful given India's growing economic and political influence on the global stage.
The international community is becoming increasingly multipolar, with nations having more options to align their interests with different powers. The limits of the Trump administration will be characterized by contentious foreign relations and the use tariff / trade warfare coupled with a recalibrated hybrid warfare to force its products upon the states that capitulate becoming part of the US Sphere of Influence.